Where the market is wrong on Maitland v Edgeworth Eagles
Maitland meet Edgeworth Eagles in the Northern NSW NPL quarter-finals at Cooks Square Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1627 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 65% against 60%. Attacking output favors Edgeworth Eagles on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Maitland arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts), 8 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Edgeworth Eagles, D 0-0 v Weston Bears, W 2-1 v Edgeworth Eagles, W 2-1 @ Kahibah.
Edgeworth Eagles are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Maitland, W 3-2 v Belmont Swansea, L 1-2 @ Maitland, W 2-0 @ Charlestown City Blues.
Maitland hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Maitland 2-1 Edgeworth Eagles.
The market prices MAI at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
