EC São Bernardo v Comercial: the model read
EC São Bernardo meet Comercial in the Copa Paulista round of 16 at Estadio Distrital do Jardim Inamar, Sao Paulo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1535, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 53%. Attacking output favors EC São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.2 per match.
EC São Bernardo arrive steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Comercial, L 0-2 @ Comercial, L 0-1 @ Santo André, L 2-3 v São José EC.
Comercial are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 5 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ São José EC, D 0-0 v São José EC, L 0-2 @ EC São Bernardo, W 2-0 v EC São Bernardo.
EC São Bernardo hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 7 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: EC São Bernardo 2-0 Comercial.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
