Where the market is wrong on Paykan v Esteghlal Khuzestan
Paykan meet Esteghlal Khuzestan in the Persian Gulf Pro League regular season - 4.
The baseline ratings are close, 1516 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Paykan, 53% against 33%. Attacking output favors Paykan on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 10%, over 2.5 goals around 6%. Draw no bet leans Paykan at 62%; double chance reads Paykan or draw 77%, Esteghlal Khuzestan or draw 63%.
Paykan arrive steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Esteghlal Khuzestan, W 3-2 @ Kheybar Khorramabad, D 0-0 v Gol Gohar, L 0-2 @ Tractor Sazi.
Esteghlal Khuzestan are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Paykan, D 1-1 v Nassaji Mazandaran, L 1-4 @ Persepolis FC, L 0-2 v Aluminium Arak.
Paykan hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 0 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Paykan 0-0 Esteghlal Khuzestan.
The market prices PAY at 37% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 62 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
