Where the market is wrong on Mombasa Elite v Police
Mombasa Elite meet Police in the FKF Premier League regular season - 3.
The baseline ratings are close, 1636 to 1609, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 68%. Attacking output favors Mombasa Elite on expected goals, 1.1 to 1.1 per match.
Mombasa Elite arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 3 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Naivas, W 1-0 v Nzoia Sugar, L 0-1 @ Luanda Villa, D 0-0 v 3K.
Police are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Tusker, D 1-1 v Homeboyz, D 1-1 v Kariobangi Sharks, D 0-0 @ Nairobi United.
The market prices MOM at 26% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 7.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
