Where the market is wrong on Progreso v Danubio
Progreso meet Danubio in the Primera División clausura - 4 at Parque Abraham Paladino, Montevideo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1400 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Danubio, 35% against 25%. Attacking output favors Danubio on expected goals, 0.8 to 0.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 24%, over 2.5 goals around 16%. Draw no bet leans Danubio at 54%; double chance reads Progreso or draw 65%, Danubio or draw 70%.
Progreso arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Club Nacional, L 0-2 v Deportivo Maldonado, L 0-1 @ Central Espanol, L 1-2 @ Club Nacional.
Danubio are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Racing Montevideo, D 0-0 @ Boston River, L 0-1 v Cerro, D 2-2 @ Albion FC.
Progreso hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 1 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Danubio 1-2 Progreso.
The market prices PRO at 32% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 63 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
