Benfica v Aarhus: the model read
Benfica meet Aarhus in the UEFA Europa League play-offs at Estádio da Luz, Lisbon.
Benfica rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1696 to 1500. Recent form leans Benfica, 78% against 50%. Attacking output favors Benfica on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.7 per match.
Benfica arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 16 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Estoril, W 3-1 @ Aarhus, W 3-1 v Aarhus, W 7-0 @ Casa Pia.
Aarhus are out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 6 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Randers FC, L 1-3 v Benfica, D 2-2 v Odense, L 1-3 @ Benfica.
Benfica hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aarhus 1-3 Benfica.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 56 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
