Where the market is wrong on HNK Rijeka v FC Midtjylland
HNK Rijeka meet FC Midtjylland in the UEFA Europa Conference League playoff round at Stadion HNK Rijeka, Rijeka.
The baseline ratings are close, 1662 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 71% against 73%. Attacking output favors FC Midtjylland on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
HNK Rijeka arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 4 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ HNK Gorica, L 1-4 v FC Midtjylland, W 3-2 v Istra 1961, L 0-2 @ FC Midtjylland.
FC Midtjylland are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 9 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Silkeborg, W 4-1 @ HNK Rijeka, W 1-0 v Randers FC, W 2-0 v HNK Rijeka.
FC Midtjylland hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 across the last 2 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: HNK Rijeka 1-4 FC Midtjylland.
The market prices HNK at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
