Where the market is wrong on NEC Nijmegen v Bodo/Glimt
NEC Nijmegen meet Bodo/Glimt in the UEFA Champions League play-offs at Goffertstadion, Nijmegen.
Bodo/Glimt rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1776 to 1468. Recent form leans Bodo/Glimt, 88% against 45%. Attacking output favors Bodo/Glimt on expected goals, 2.9 to 1.7 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 59%, over 2.5 goals around 86%. Draw no bet leans Bodo/Glimt at 75%; double chance reads NEC Nijmegen or draw 43%, Bodo/Glimt or draw 81%.
NEC Nijmegen arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-3 v Bodo/Glimt, W 4-1 @ Willem II, W 2-1 v Olympiakos Piraeus, L 1-2 v Telstar.
Bodo/Glimt are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 15 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: W 3-1 @ NEC Nijmegen, W 3-2 v Union St. Gilloise, W 2-1 @ Valerenga, D 3-3 @ Union St. Gilloise.
The market prices NEC at 35% implied. Our number sits apart on Bodo/Glimt: a 17.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 87 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
