Where the market is wrong on Birmingham City W v Liverpool W
Birmingham City W meet Liverpool W in the WSL Cup group stage at The DCS Stadium, Birmingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1592, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 60%. Attacking output favors Birmingham City W on expected goals, 2.0 to 2.0 per match.
Birmingham City W arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 3-4 v Liverpool W, D 3-3 v Crystal Palace W, L 0-2 @ Everton W, L 0-2 @ Chelsea W.
Liverpool W are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 13 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 4-3 @ Birmingham City W, W 2-0 v Everton W, W 4-2 v Sunderland W, L 2-4 @ Manchester City W.
The market prices BIR at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Birmingham City W: a 16.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
