Where the market is wrong on Coleshill Town v Shifnal Town FC
Coleshill Town meet Shifnal Town FC in the Friendlies Clubs club friendlies. The model makes Coleshill Town the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 43% COL, 29% draw, 28% SHI.
Coleshill Town rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans Coleshill Town, 55% against 32%. Attacking output favors Coleshill Town on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 59%. Draw no bet leans Coleshill Town at 61%; double chance reads Coleshill Town or draw 72%, Shifnal Town FC or draw 57%.
Coleshill Town arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 8 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 v Alvechurch, D 2-2 v Corby Town, L 1-4 @ Racing Club Warwick, L 2-3 v Lichfield City.
Shifnal Town FC are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Rushall Olympic, L 1-3 v Lower Breck, W 2-1 @ Kidsgrove Athletic, L 1-2 v Wythenshawe Town.
The market prices COL at 45% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output