Where the market is wrong on Virtus Entella v Cesena
Virtus Entella meet Cesena in the Serie B regular season - 2 at Stadio Comunale di Chiavari, Chiavari.
The baseline ratings are close, 1431 to 1454, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 38% against 45%. Attacking output favors Cesena on expected goals, 1.1 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 33%. Draw no bet leans Cesena at 54%; double chance reads Virtus Entella or draw 63%, Cesena or draw 69%.
Virtus Entella arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 v Cesena, L 0-1 @ Sudtirol, D 2-2 @ Hellas Verona, L 0-1 v Carrarese.
Cesena are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Virtus Entella, D 1-1 v Sampdoria, L 0-3 @ Sassuolo, D 0-0 @ Forli.
Cesena hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Virtus Entella 1-2 Cesena.
The market prices VIR at 46% implied. Our number sits apart on Cesena: a 11.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
