Where the market is wrong on Ascoli v Carrarese
Ascoli meet Carrarese in the Serie B regular season - 2 at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca, Ascoli Piceno.
Ascoli rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1625 to 1400. Recent form leans Ascoli, 66% against 35%. Attacking output favors Ascoli on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 36%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Ascoli at 66%; double chance reads Ascoli or draw 76%, Carrarese or draw 55%.
Ascoli arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Carrarese, W 2-1 @ Hellas Verona, L 1-4 @ Genoa, W 3-1 v Potenza.
Carrarese are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 3 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Ascoli, L 1-2 v Mantova, L 0-1 @ Torino, W 1-0 @ Virtus Entella.
Their last 1 meetings are tight — 1 drawn. Most recently they met in 2026: Ascoli 1-1 Carrarese.
The market prices ASC at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
