Where the market is wrong on Stanway Rovers v Aveley
Stanway Rovers meet Aveley in the Non League Premier - Isthmian regular season - 6.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 50% against 55%. Attacking output favors Aveley on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.2 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 76%, over 2.5 goals around 81%. Draw no bet leans Aveley at 58%; double chance reads Stanway Rovers or draw 58%, Aveley or draw 69%.
Stanway Rovers arrive out of sorts: 0W-1D-4L from their last five (1/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 3 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 1-4 @ St Albans City, L 1-2 v Carshalton Athletic, L 0-4 @ Welling United, L 1-3 v Ramsgate.
Aveley are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Lewes, W 5-1 @ Three Bridges, W 3-2 v Whitehawk, L 0-1 @ Maldon & Tiptree.
The market prices STA at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on Stanway Rovers: a 5.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
