Maccabi Tel Aviv v Sheriff Tiraspol

Maccabi Tel Aviv meet Sheriff Tiraspol in the UEFA Europa League 2nd qualifying round at Adjarabet Arena, Batumi. The model makes Sheriff Tiraspol the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 34% MAC, 30% draw, 36% SHE.

The baseline ratings are close, 1638 to 1661, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 73%. Attacking output favors Maccabi Tel Aviv on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 56%, over 2.5 goals around 52%. Draw no bet leans Sheriff Tiraspol at 51%; double chance reads Maccabi Tel Aviv or draw 64%, Sheriff Tiraspol or draw 66%.

Maccabi Tel Aviv arrive in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 11 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 5-0 @ Sheriff Tiraspol, W 3-1 @ Hapoel Beer Sheva, L 0-1 @ IMT Novi Beograd, W 1-0 v Alashkert.

Sheriff Tiraspol are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 8 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Milsami Orhei, L 0-5 v Maccabi Tel Aviv, W 3-2 @ Petrocub, W 1-0 @ Aluminij.

Maccabi Tel Aviv hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Sheriff Tiraspol 0-5 Maccabi Tel Aviv.

The market prices MAC at 70% implied. Our number sits apart on Sheriff Tiraspol: a 24.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.