Universitatea Craiova v Levski Sofia

Universitatea Craiova meet Levski Sofia in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Stadionul Ion Oblemenco, Craiova. The model makes Levski Sofia the most likely outcome at 43%, with the full read 25% UNI, 32% draw, 43% LEV.

The baseline ratings are close, 1604 to 1707, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Levski Sofia, 80% against 65%. Attacking output favors Levski Sofia on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.4 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 34%. Draw no bet leans Levski Sofia at 63%; double chance reads Universitatea Craiova or draw 57%, Levski Sofia or draw 75%.

Universitatea Craiova arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 1-5 @ Dinamo Bucuresti, L 0-1 @ Levski Sofia, W 4-0 v Uta Arad, W 1-0 v ML Vitebsk.

Levski Sofia are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 4 straight wins), 10 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 @ Lokomotiv Sofia, W 1-0 v Universitatea Craiova, W 2-1 v Dunav Ruse, W 4-0 v Borac Banja Luka.

Levski Sofia hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Levski Sofia 1-0 Universitatea Craiova.

The market prices UNI at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Levski Sofia: a 19.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 83 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.