Shamrock Rovers v Ararat-Armenia

Shamrock Rovers meet Ararat-Armenia in the UEFA Champions League 2nd qualifying round at Tallaght Stadium, Dublin. The model makes Ararat-Armenia the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 33% SHA, 31% draw, 36% ARA.

The baseline ratings are close, 1650 to 1638, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 68% against 70%. Attacking output favors Shamrock Rovers on expected goals, 1.7 to 1.7 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 41%. Draw no bet leans Ararat-Armenia at 52%; double chance reads Shamrock Rovers or draw 64%, Ararat-Armenia or draw 67%.

Shamrock Rovers arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts), 11 scored and 7 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Ararat-Armenia, W 4-1 v Cork City, W 5-1 v Floriana, L 0-2 @ Floriana.

Ararat-Armenia are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v Shamrock Rovers, L 2-3 @ Riga, W 2-0 v Riga, D 1-1 v Vojvodina.

Ararat-Armenia hold the recent head-to-head, 1 wins to 0 across the last 1 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ararat-Armenia 2-0 Shamrock Rovers.

The market prices SHA at 51% implied. Our number sits apart on Ararat-Armenia: a 11.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 81 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.