Stargard Szczeciński defeated Flota Świnoujście 4-0 in a pre-season friendly, a result that was more emphatic than the Lemeister model's projection of a 2-1 home win. The model had given the hosts a 44 per cent chance of victory, with the draw and away win both rated at 28 per cent. The clean sheet and four-goal margin were built on a foundation that, according to the available data, was not obviously dominant, making the final scoreline a curious statistical outlier.
The first half produced no goals from open play, with the game scoreless at the interval. The opening goal arrived in the 56th minute, scored by a Stargard Szczeciński player. The second followed 13 minutes later, in the 69th minute, and the hosts added two further goals in the closing stages, in the 82nd and 89th minutes, to complete the rout. There were no assists listed in the data, and none of the goals were penalties or own goals. The timing of the strikes, with three of the four coming after the 69th minute, suggests that the home side grew in confidence as the match progressed while Flota Świnoujście faded.
Despite the emphatic scoreline, the underlying numbers do not suggest a comprehensive performance. Possession was split with 50 per cent each, indicating an evenly contested midfield battle rather than dominance by the hosts. Stargard Szczeciński managed six shots in total, with four on target, a shots-on-target rate of 67 per cent. Flota Świnoujście recorded four shots but failed to land any on target, a decisive factor in the clean sheet. Expected goals data was not provided, but the disparity between the four actual goals and the limited shot count suggests clinical finishing rather than sustained pressure. Converting four of six shots into goals is an unusually high conversion rate, one that is unlikely to be replicated in competitive fixtures.
The hosts' advantage was most pronounced in passing metrics, where they outperformed their opponents in both volume and accuracy. Stargard Szczeciński completed 431 passes at an 85 per cent accuracy rate, while Flota Świnoujście managed 392 passes at 82 per cent. This gave the home side 39 additional completed passes, a modest but meaningful edge that helped them control the tempo after the opening goal. Corners were even at four each, and the match passed without a single yellow or red card, suggesting a clean, disciplined contest. There were also no substitutions made by either side, meaning both teams used their starting lineups for the full 90 minutes.
No player ratings or individual performance data were supplied, so no standout performers can be identified from the numbers. The lack of player-level statistics means that the analytical picture remains incomplete. However, the collective data suggests that Stargard Szczeciński's efficiency in front of goal was the primary differentiator, rather than any systematic superiority in build-up play or territorial control.
As a pre-season friendly, the result carries no competitive weight, but it will provide Stargard Szczeciński with a confidence-boosting victory. For Flota Świnoujście, the inability to register a shot on target will be a concern, even in a warm-up fixture. The Lemeister model had expected a closer contest, and the statistical parity in possession and total shots suggests that the scoreline overstated the difference between the sides on the day. Both teams will take lessons from this match, with Stargard Szczeciński likely to focus on replicating their finishing touch, and Flota Świnoujście on creating more dangerous opportunities in future outings.
