Where the market is wrong on Wealdstone v Carlisle
Wealdstone meet Carlisle in the National League regular season - 4 at Grosvenor Vale, London.
Carlisle rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1613 to 1489. Recent form leans Carlisle, 66% against 48%. Attacking output favors Carlisle on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Carlisle at 61%; double chance reads Wealdstone or draw 57%, Carlisle or draw 72%.
Wealdstone arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Carlisle, L 0-1 @ Worthing, L 1-3 v Wolves U21, L 1-3 v Harrogate Town.
Carlisle are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 11 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Wealdstone, W 4-1 v AFC Hornchurch, D 1-1 @ Yeovil Town, L 2-3 v Worthing.
Carlisle hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Wealdstone 1-1 Carlisle.
The market prices WEA at 25% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 4.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
