Where the market is wrong on Samsunspor v Fenerbahçe
Samsunspor meet Fenerbahçe in the Süper Lig regular season - 3 at Samsun 19 Mayis Stadyumu, Samsun.
The baseline ratings are close, 1581 to 1684, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Fenerbahçe, 75% against 60%. Attacking output favors Fenerbahçe on expected goals, 2.1 to 1.6 per match.
Samsunspor arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 7 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Fenerbahçe, W 2-0 @ Rizespor, D 3-3 v Göztepe, L 0-3 @ Kasımpaşa.
Fenerbahçe are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 @ Samsunspor, W 2-1 @ Lyon, W 4-2 v Konyaspor, D 1-1 v Lyon.
The market prices SAM at 17% implied. Our number sits apart on Samsunspor: a 7.9-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
