Where the market is wrong on Alaves v Villarreal
Alaves meet Villarreal in the La Liga regular season - 3 at Estadio Mendizorrotza, Vitoria-Gasteiz.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1558, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 57% against 57%. Attacking output favors Villarreal on expected goals, 1.8 to 1.6 per match.
Alaves arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 9 scored and 2 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Villarreal, D 1-1 @ Rayo Vallecano, W 3-0 v Getafe, D 1-1 @ Racing Santander.
Villarreal are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 7 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Alaves, D 2-2 @ Atletico Madrid, D 2-2 @ Racing Santander, W 2-1 @ Galatasaray.
Alaves hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 3 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Alaves 1-0 Villarreal.
The market prices ALA at 30% implied. Our number sits apart on Alaves: a 3.2-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
