Where the market is wrong on Gillingham v Northampton
Gillingham meet Northampton in the League Two regular season - 3 at Priestfield Stadium, Gillingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1420 to 1400, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Gillingham, 38% against 23%. Attacking output favors Gillingham on expected goals, 0.9 to 0.8 per match.
Gillingham arrive patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts, 3 unbeaten), 2 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Chesterfield, D 1-1 v Northampton, D 0-0 @ Fleetwood Town, L 0-3 v Walsall.
Northampton are patchy: 0W-3D-2L from their last five (3/15 pts), 2 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 v Crawley Town, D 1-1 @ Gillingham, L 0-1 @ Crewe, L 0-3 v Brighton U21.
The market prices GIL at 36% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
