Where the market is wrong on Watford v West Ham
Watford meet West Ham in the Championship regular season - 3 at Vicarage Road, Watford.
West Ham rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1523 to 1400. Recent form leans West Ham, 55% against 33%. Attacking output favors West Ham on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.9 per match.
Watford arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 @ Swansea, D 1-1 v West Ham, L 1-5 v Peterborough, D 1-1 @ Wrexham.
West Ham are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 12 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: W 4-2 v Wolves, D 1-1 @ Watford, W 4-1 @ Southampton, L 1-2 v Charlton.
The market prices WAT at 21% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 3.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 55 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
