Where the market is wrong on Hapoel Petah Tikva v Maccabi Petah Tikva
Hapoel Petah Tikva meet Maccabi Petah Tikva in the Toto Cup Ligat Al regular season - 1 at HaMoshava Stadium, Petah Tikva. The model makes Maccabi Petah Tikva the most likely outcome at 46%, with the full read 24% HAP, 30% draw, 46% MAC.
The baseline ratings are close, 1408 to 1516, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Maccabi Petah Tikva, 55% against 38%. Attacking output favors Maccabi Petah Tikva on expected goals, 1.8 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 39%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Maccabi Petah Tikva at 66%; double chance reads Hapoel Petah Tikva or draw 54%, Maccabi Petah Tikva or draw 76%.
Hapoel Petah Tikva arrive steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 5 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Maccabi Petah Tikva, D 1-1 v Bnei Yehuda, L 1-2 @ Sportist Svoge, W 2-0 v Spartak Pleven.
Maccabi Petah Tikva are steady: 1W-3D-1L from their last five (6/15 pts), 6 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Hapoel Petah Tikva, D 0-0 @ Kiryat Yam SC, D 2-2 v Bnei Yehuda, D 2-2 @ Hapoel Kfar Saba.
Maccabi Petah Tikva hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Hapoel Petah Tikva 1-0 Maccabi Petah Tikva.
The market prices HAP at 40% implied. Our number sits apart on Maccabi Petah Tikva: a 15.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 84 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
