Where the market is wrong on Aston Villa v Nottingham Forest
Aston Villa meet Nottingham Forest in the Premier League regular season - 4 at Villa Park, Birmingham.
The baseline ratings are close, 1489 to 1546, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Nottingham Forest, 55% against 45%. Attacking output favors Aston Villa on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.6 per match.
Aston Villa arrive out of sorts: 0W-0D-5L from their last five (0/15 pts, 5 straight defeats), 3 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Arsenal, L 0-4 @ Brighton, L 1-2 @ Borussia Mönchengladbach, L 1-2 @ Paris Saint Germain.
Nottingham Forest are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: D 2-2 @ Liverpool, L 0-2 v Leeds, L 0-1 v Leeds, W 2-0 v Stade Brestois 29.
Aston Villa hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 3 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Aston Villa 4-0 Nottingham Forest.
The market prices AST at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Nottingham Forest: a 11.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 80 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
