Where the market is wrong on Montpellier v Boulogne
Montpellier meet Boulogne in the Ligue 2 regular season - 4 at Stade de la Mosson, Montpellier.
Montpellier rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1615 to 1400. Recent form leans Montpellier, 68% against 37%. Attacking output favors Montpellier on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 22%, over 2.5 goals around 25%. Draw no bet leans Montpellier at 67%; double chance reads Montpellier or draw 78%, Boulogne or draw 55%.
Montpellier arrive in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Boulogne, W 1-0 @ Dunkerque, W 1-0 @ Nancy, D 1-1 v Dijon.
Boulogne are patchy: 0W-4D-1L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Montpellier, D 1-1 v RED Star FC 93, L 0-1 @ Guingamp, D 0-0 v Nancy.
Boulogne hold the recent head-to-head, 2 wins to 0 with 1 drawn across the last 3 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Montpellier 0-0 Boulogne.
The market prices MON at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 5.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
