Where the market is wrong on CF Pachuca v Puebla
CF Pachuca meet Puebla in the Liga MX apertura - 4 at Estadio Miguel Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1431, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans CF Pachuca, 53% against 38%. Attacking output favors CF Pachuca on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 69%. Draw no bet leans CF Pachuca at 60%; double chance reads CF Pachuca or draw 71%, Puebla or draw 57%.
CF Pachuca arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 6 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Atletico San Luis, L 2-3 v Puebla, W 1-0 @ Charlotte, L 1-2 @ Columbus Crew.
Puebla are steady: 2W-0D-3L from their last five (6/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 10 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: W 3-2 v Santos Laguna, W 3-2 @ CF Pachuca, L 2-3 @ San Diego, L 0-3 @ Austin.
The market prices CF at 61% implied. Our number sits apart on Puebla: a 12.1-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
