Guadalajara Chivas v FC Juarez

Guadalajara Chivas meet FC Juarez in the Liga MX apertura - 2 at Estadio Akron, Zapopan. The model makes Guadalajara Chivas the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 40% GUA, 29% draw, 31% FC .

The baseline ratings are close, 1541 to 1504, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 50%. Attacking output favors FC Juarez on expected goals, 1.6 to 1.6 per match.

Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 64%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Guadalajara Chivas at 56%; double chance reads Guadalajara Chivas or draw 69%, FC Juarez or draw 60%.

Guadalajara Chivas arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Toluca, D 0-0 @ Correcaminos Uat, L 1-2 v Cruz Azul, D 2-2 @ Cruz Azul.

FC Juarez are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 8 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Puebla, D 1-1 @ Colorado Rapids, W 3-1 @ Mineros de Zacatecas, D 2-2 v CA La Paz.

Guadalajara Chivas hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 1 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: FC Juarez 0-1 Guadalajara Chivas.

The market prices GUA at 62% implied. Our number sits apart on FC Juarez: a 15.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.

MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.