Where the market is wrong on Genoa v Frosinone
Genoa meet Frosinone in the Serie A regular season - 4 at Stadio Luigi Ferraris, Genoa.
Frosinone rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1466. Recent form leans Frosinone, 75% against 43%. Attacking output favors Frosinone on expected goals, 2.0 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 40%, over 2.5 goals around 65%. Draw no bet leans Frosinone at 74%; double chance reads Genoa or draw 46%, Frosinone or draw 81%.
Genoa arrive patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 15 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Lazio, L 0-2 v Napoli, W 4-1 v Ascoli, L 0-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Frosinone are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: W 3-0 @ Fiorentina, L 0-1 v Juventus, W 4-1 v Juve Stabia, L 1-2 v Lazio.
Genoa hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 8 meetings. Most recently they met in 2024: Genoa 1-1 Frosinone.
The market prices GEN at 53% implied. Our number sits apart on Frosinone: a 34.3-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 86 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
