Where the market is wrong on Atalanta v Cagliari
Atalanta meet Cagliari in the Serie A regular season - 4 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atalanta, 60% against 50%. Attacking output favors Atalanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 30%, over 2.5 goals around 24%. Draw no bet leans Atalanta at 57%; double chance reads Atalanta or draw 71%, Cagliari or draw 62%.
Atalanta arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 5 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Bologna, W 1-0 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 2-1 v Sassuolo, D 0-0 v Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Cagliari are steady: 2W-2D-1L from their last five (8/15 pts), 4 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 v Inter, W 1-0 @ Parma, W 1-0 v Arezzo, D 0-0 v Nice.
Atalanta hold the recent head-to-head, 6 wins to 3 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Cagliari 3-2 Atalanta.
The market prices ATA at 63% implied. Our number sits apart on Cagliari: a 14.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
