Where the market is wrong on Fiorentina v Torino
Fiorentina meet Torino in the Serie A regular season - 3 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Florence.
The baseline ratings are close, 1553 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 58% against 50%. Attacking output favors Fiorentina on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 52%, over 2.5 goals around 47%. Draw no bet leans Fiorentina at 52%; double chance reads Fiorentina or draw 67%, Torino or draw 64%.
Fiorentina arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 7 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 v Frosinone, L 0-4 @ AS Roma, W 4-1 v Benevento, D 1-1 v Deportivo La Coruna.
Torino are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts, 2 straight defeats), 5 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Sassuolo, L 1-2 v AC Milan, W 1-0 v Carrarese, D 1-1 @ Avellino.
Fiorentina hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 2 with 5 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fiorentina 2-2 Torino.
The market prices FIO at 49% implied. Our number sits apart on Torino: a 11.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
