Where the market is wrong on Atalanta v Bologna
Atalanta meet Bologna in the Serie A regular season - 2 at New Balance Arena, Bergamo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1569 to 1466, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Atalanta, 60% against 43%. Attacking output favors Atalanta on expected goals, 1.3 to 1.1 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 46%, over 2.5 goals around 48%. Draw no bet leans Atalanta at 62%; double chance reads Atalanta or draw 73%, Bologna or draw 57%.
Atalanta arrive surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 5 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Bologna, W 1-0 @ Hapoel Tel Aviv, W 2-1 v Sassuolo, D 0-0 v Hapoel Tel Aviv.
Bologna are patchy: 1W-0D-4L from their last five (3/15 pts, 4 straight defeats), 4 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 0-1 @ Atalanta, L 0-1 v Lazio, L 0-1 @ Brighton, L 1-4 v Pisa.
Bologna hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 4 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Atalanta 1-0 Bologna.
The market prices ATA at 50% implied. Our number sits apart on Bologna: a 3.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
