Indonesia cruised to a 5-1 victory over Cambodia in their ASEAN Championship Group Stage 2 match at Pakansari Stadium, a result that the Lemeister model had seen as a probable home win, assigning Indonesia a 42 per cent chance of victory and projecting a 2-1 scoreline. The contest was effectively decided inside the opening 24 minutes, as Indonesia built a three-goal lead from which Cambodia could never recover.
The home side struck with devastating efficiency. M. Lee Baker opened the scoring in the sixth minute, converting a T. Haye assist for a normal goal. The same combination worked again in the 15th minute, this time with E. Reijnders providing the assist for Baker's second. S. Walsh then got on the scoresheet in the 24th minute, again from a T. Haye assist, making it 3-0 inside a quarter of the match. The early yellow card for Cambodia's Y. Ogawa in the fifth minute had done little to slow Indonesia's rhythm.
The second half began with a bizarre twist. In the 48th minute, Cambodia's N. Argawinata turned the ball into his own net without an assist, an own goal that made it 4-0 and effectively ended any lingering contest. Cambodia's sole moment came in the 56th minute, but the data shows no details of how a goal was conceded. M. Lee Baker completed his hat-trick in the same minute, again assisted by T. Haye, restoring the four-goal margin. J. Raven added a sixth in the 86th minute, an unassisted normal goal, to round off the scoring.
The statistical story from the night is driven entirely by the goal timeline. Indonesia managed six goals from their efforts, while Cambodia could only manage one from their own attacking play, plus the own goal that inflated the home side's tally. Despite the lopsided scoreline, the available numbers do not include possession, shots, expected goals, passing or corner statistics, so analysis must rely on the clear structure of the match. The two yellow cards, one for Y. Ogawa of Cambodia and one for S. Walsh of Indonesia, suggest a fairly disciplined encounter, with neither side reduced in numbers.
The standout performer was undoubtedly M. Lee Baker, who scored three times and was involved in the majority of the attacking output. T. Haye provided three assists, demonstrating a key creative role. S. Walsh also contributed a goal and a yellow card, while E. Reijnders added an assist. For Cambodia, N. Argawinata will have an unhappy memory of the own goal, while Y. Ogawa's early booking was a minor blemish. The five substitutes used by each side suggest managers made full use of their benches, but no details are available on who came on or off.
The result gives Indonesia a commanding start to their ASEAN Championship group stage campaign, with a maximum six points from their opening two matches. Cambodia, meanwhile, will need to recover quickly from a heavy defeat that leaves them with work to do if they are to progress. The Lemeister model's pre-match projection of a 2-1 home win was some way off the eventual margin, but it correctly identified Indonesia as the favoured side.
