Palencia CF took a 2-3 defeat to Guijuelo in the Tercera División RFEF Group 8 final, a result that the data shows was decided by Guijuelo's superior finishing efficiency in the first half and their ability to withstand late pressure after a red card. The Lemeister model had projected a 2-1 away win, giving Guijuelo a 41 per cent chance of victory; the actual margin matched that narrow advantage.
E. Rivas put Palencia ahead in the 11th minute, but Guijuelo responded with three unanswered goals before half-time. J. Elorza equalised in the 26th minute with a normal goal, then A. Garcia converted a penalty in the 35th minute to give the visitors the lead. J. Ruiz struck in the 58th minute to extend Guijuelo's advantage to 3-1. D. Vallecillo pulled one back for Palencia in the 71st minute, but they could not force an equaliser. Guijuelo finished with ten men after G. Fassani received a yellow card and a red card in the 85th minute, yet Palencia failed to capitalise on the numerical advantage in the closing stages.
The statistics illustrate a balanced contest in terms of volume, but significant differences in quality. Both sides managed a similar number of shots, with Palencia registering eight attempts to Guijuelo's nine. Shots on target were level at four each, suggesting both goalkeepers were kept equally busy. Expected goals, however, favoured Guijuelo, who generated 1.6 xG against Palencia's 1.2, reflecting the higher quality of their shooting positions. Palencia held 53 per cent of possession, their superior ball retention translating into 421 completed passes at 82 per cent accuracy, compared to Guijuelo's 373 passes at 78 per cent. Yet Guijuelo's passing was more incisive in the final third, a factor that underpinned their three first-half goals and their ability to create better chances from open play and the penalty spot.
Player ratings confirm the decisive contributions. J. Ruiz, who scored Guijuelo's third goal and disrupted the Palencia back line throughout, earned a match-high rating of 8.4, reflecting his effective movement and clinical finishing. A. Garcia, scorer of the penalty, was likewise influential at 8.2, demonstrating composure from 12 yards. For Palencia, E. Rivas received 7.6 for his early goal and general work rate, while D. Vallecillo, who halved the deficit, rated 7.3 for his persistence in attack. J. Elorza, who equalised with a well-taken normal goal, managed a solid 7.1, underlining his role in Guijuelo's recovery from an early deficit. G. Fassani's afternoon was marred by his two bookings in the 85th minute, which left Guijuelo defending deep for the final minutes. Despite the red card, defensive midfielder G. Fassani's rating of 6.8 reflected a game where he had been effective in breaking up play before his dismissal, committing necessary fouls that ultimately cost him.
The result hands Guijuelo the Group 8 title, a victory that was narrowly favoured by the pre-match probabilities. Palencia will rue their inability to build on Rivas's early lead, particularly against a side that was clinical in front of goal. The home team's possession advantage did not translate into clear chances, while Guijuelo's finishing efficiency from both open play and a penalty proved decisive. The final moments with ten men tested their resilience, but they held firm to secure the trophy, demonstrating defensive organisation that compensated for reduced numbers. For Palencia, the defeat ends their campaign on a sour note, leaving them to reflect on how a strong start could not be sustained against a more ruthless opponent.
