Peña Deportiva won the Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 final 2-1 against Manacor, a result that the numbers show was decided by a clinical early burst that proved just enough to withstand a second-half fightback. The decisive factor was two goals in a four-minute spell from M. Salinas, which gave Peña Deportiva a commanding lead that Manacor, despite pulling one back after the interval, could not fully overturn. The Lemeister model had given Peña Deportiva a 41 per cent chance of victory and projected a 2-1 scoreline, which the match followed exactly.
M. Salinas was the match-winner, scoring both of Peña Deportiva's goals in the opening 21 minutes. He struck first in the 17th minute, giving his side the lead with an unassisted effort, then doubled the advantage just four minutes later, again without an assist. These two goals in quick succession established a platform that Peña Deportiva would protect through the remainder of the first half and into the second. Manacor's response came early in the second period, when F. Exposito scored in the 49th minute, also without an assist, to reduce the deficit to a single goal. Despite that strike, Manacor could not find an equaliser, and Peña Deportiva held on to secure the trophy.
No match statistics were recorded in the available data, making it impossible to detail possession, shots, expected goals or passing accuracy. Similarly, no player match ratings were provided, so individual performance analysis beyond the goalscorers is unavailable. The absence of cards indicates a clean contest with no bookings or dismissals, while no substitutions were made by either side, suggesting both managers kept faith with their starting line-ups throughout the 90 minutes. This lack of granular data restricts deeper statistical analysis, but the goal sequence alone highlights the efficiency of Peña Deportiva's attack.
The goals themselves tell a simple story of contrasting timing. Peña Deportiva had two shots that found the net in the opening 21 minutes, while Manacor needed 49 minutes to score their sole goal. Without underlying shot numbers or expected goals data, it is not possible to assess whether Manacor created enough chances to merit a draw, but the final scoreline of 2-1 implies a match that was competitive after the interval. F. Exposito's goal gave Manacor hope, yet Peña Deportiva's defence managed to prevent any further breach, ensuring the early advantage held.
The win is significant for Peña Deportiva as Tercera División RFEF - Group 11 champions, earning them the title in a one-off final. For Manacor, the defeat ends their season in second place, having rallied well in the second half but ultimately falling short of the single goal required. The match lived up to the Lemeister model's projection, which had Peña Deportiva as clear favourites and predicted a 2-1 victory. While the absence of detailed statistics leaves some analytical questions unanswered, the result itself confirms the model's expectation that Peña Deportiva's early burst would be enough to see them over the line in a final defined by clinical finishing rather than sustained control.
