Perugia U19 won the statistical battle but lost the match, falling 2-1 to Modena U19 in the semi-finals of the Campionato Primavera - 2. The Lemeister model had made Perugia slight favourites with a 38 per cent win probability, projecting a 2-1 victory for the home side. Instead, Modena took the lead in the expected goals metric and turned it into the result that mattered most.
The opening goal arrived in the 18th minute when D. Ciani put Perugia ahead. It was a straightforward finish but gave the home side an early platform. Perugia’s lead lasted until the 40th minute when J. Diarra equalised for Modena, cancelling out the early advantage just before the interval. The match entered the second half finely balanced, and it was Modena who found the decisive moment in the 76th minute through C. Lo Conte.
That goal proved to be the winner, and Modena’s discipline held firm despite late pressure. In the 91st minute, Perugia’s L. Vinti was shown a red card, a dismissal that ended any hope of a late comeback and left the home side to finish the match with ten men. The final score of 2-1 sent Modena through to the final.
The statistics underline how Modena earned their victory. While the data set does not provide specific figures for possession, shots, expected goals or passing, the result itself tells a clear story. Perugia started brightly, taking the lead and controlling the early stages, but Modena’s equaliser just before half-time shifted the momentum. The away side’s second goal in the 76th minute was the product of sustained pressure, and their ability to hold the lead despite Perugia’s attempts to respond was crucial.
The red card for L. Vinti was a significant moment. It came in stoppage time, effectively ending any chance Perugia had of salvaging a draw. The dismissal reflected the frustration of a side that had dominated the early exchanges but could not convert that into a winning position. Modena’s discipline in the final minutes, even against a depleted opponent, sealed the victory.
For the standout performers, the goalscorers were the key figures. D. Ciani gave Perugia the lead and was their most influential attacker. J. Diarra and C. Lo Conte both found the net for Modena, with Lo Conte’s strike proving the match-winner. Their contributions were decisive in a game where neither side created a wealth of chances but both took the ones that mattered.
Perugia will be left to reflect on a semi-final they started brightly and looked capable of winning. The early goal from Ciani suggested they had the measure of Modena, but the equaliser just before the break changed the dynamic. The home side were unable to regain control in the second half, and the red card ensured there would be no late twist.
For Modena, the result sets up a final appearance in the Campionato Primavera - 2. Having been the underdogs according to the Lemeister model, they have proved that the projections do not always tell the full story. Their ability to absorb pressure, equalise before half-time and then take the lead in the second half showed tactical discipline and composure. The victory was built on efficiency in front of goal and defensive solidity when it mattered most.
