Chievo won the Serie D Girone B final 3-2 against USD Casatese after extra time, a result that defied the pre-match expectations of the Lemeister model. The model had priced USD Casatese as narrow favourites with a 38 per cent win probability, yet Chievo, given only a 30 per cent chance, emerged victorious. The data available shows a contest settled by fine margins and the clinical finishing of two players who dominated the scoresheet.
The scoring began in the 11th minute when USD Casatese’s G. Avinci found the net, giving the home side an early lead. Chievo responded in the 37th minute through A. Paloschi, who equalised before half-time. The pattern of response continued in the second half when Paloschi struck again in the 73rd minute, putting Chievo ahead for the first time. USD Casatese forced extra time when Avinci scored his second of the match in the 87th minute, making it 2-2. The decisive goal came in the 100th minute, when Chievo’s R. Costantino scored what proved to be the winner. All five goals were classified as normal goals, with no penalties or own goals recorded.
Without possession, shot, or expected goals data to analyse, the goals themselves become the primary statistical narrative. The fact that two players – Avinci and Paloschi – accounted for four of the five goals underscores their decisive influence. Paloschi’s brace, including the crucial second goal that originally gave Chievo the lead, appears to have been the most impactful performance by an individual. Avinci’s double, particularly the late equaliser that forced extra time, nearly swung the game in USD Casatese’s favour. Costantino’s strike in extra time proved to be the difference, a moment that settled the final in Chievo’s favour.
The lack of any cards in the match indicates a disciplined encounter, with neither side resorting to reckless challenges. This clean record suggests that the game was contested with a focus on technical quality rather than physical aggression. The final scoreline of 3-2 reflects a game of fine margins, where both sides had periods of ascendancy but neither could establish complete control. The absence of substitutions in the data may indicate that both teams used their full allotment of changes, but no information is available on who was introduced or when.
For USD Casatese, the defeat will sting given they led early and equalised late to force extra time. Avinci’s double, including the 87th-minute equaliser, nearly swung the game in their favour. But Chievo’s ability to respond each time, culminating in Costantino’s extra-time strike, proved decisive. The result means Chievo lift the Serie D Girone B title, earning promotion to the next tier. For USD Casatese, the runners-up finish likely still secures a promotion play-off spot, given the league structure, but they will rue the missed opportunity to win the title outright.
The Lemeister model’s pre-match projection of a home win proved incorrect, but the narrow margin and the dramatic extra-time conclusion reflect how closely matched the two sides were on the day. Chievo’s victory, achieved against the odds, underscores their resilience and ability to deliver when it mattered most. The final was a fitting climax to the season, decided not by a single dominant performance but by the individual brilliance of three players who shaped the outcome with their goals.
