Where the market is wrong on Fjolnir v Haukar
Fjolnir meet Haukar in the 2. Deild regular season - 14 at Extra Vollurinn, Reykjavik. The model makes Haukar the most likely outcome at 41%, with the full read 34% FJO, 26% draw, 41% HAU.
The baseline ratings are close, 1546 to 1627, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Haukar, 65% against 55%. Attacking output favors Fjolnir on expected goals, 2.5 to 2.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 93%, over 2.5 goals around 97%. Draw no bet leans Haukar at 55%; double chance reads Fjolnir or draw 59%, Haukar or draw 66%.
Fjolnir arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 11 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Haukar, L 2-5 @ Magni, W 4-1 @ Dalvík / Reynir, D 1-1 v Kormákur / Hvöt.
Haukar are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 14 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Fjolnir, W 2-1 v Thróttur Vogar, W 5-2 @ Magni, W 4-1 v Kári.
Fjolnir hold the recent head-to-head, 3 wins to 1 across the last 4 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Fjolnir 2-1 Haukar.
The market prices FJO at 28% implied. Our number sits apart on Fjolnir: a 5.8-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 52 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
