Dukagjini won the Cup final 2-1 against Ferizaj in Pristina, a result that the underlying numbers suggest was a fair reflection of a closely contested match. The Lemeister model had given Dukagjini a 37 per cent chance of lifting the trophy, compared to Ferizaj's 32 per cent, with the projected scoreline of a narrow away win proving prescient. The actual margin of one goal matched the model's projection of a 1-0 away victory, underscoring how fine the margins were in this final.
The scoring began in the 17th minute when A. Merlaku put Dukagjini ahead, giving the underdogs an early foothold in the contest. Ferizaj responded with purpose, levelling just six minutes later through K. Shabani in the 23rd minute. That equaliser restored parity and set the stage for a tense, evenly-matched contest that would be decided in the second half. The decisive moment arrived in the 74th minute, when H. Berisha struck for Dukagjini to make it 2-1, a lead they would hold for the remainder of the match despite further adversity.
Discipline became a significant factor in the closing stages. Dukagjini were reduced to ten men on 71 minutes when a player received a red card, a setback that came shortly before their second goal. Remarkably, they scored the winner while playing with a numerical disadvantage, requiring them to defend their slender advantage for the final 19 minutes plus stoppage time with only ten men. Ferizaj were unable to capitalise on the extra man during that period, and their own task became harder when they too received a red card in the first minute of second-half stoppage time. Neither side made any substitutions during the contest.
With no detailed statistical data such as possession, shots, expected goals or passing accuracy available, the match must be assessed principally on the sequence of events and the competitive balance implied by the model. The fact that both teams finished with ten men, and that the winning goal came from a side playing with a numerical disadvantage, suggests a contest of high tension and physical commitment. Dukagjini's ability to score shortly after going down to ten men and then hold out for the remaining time was the defining factor in their victory.
For Ferizaj, the defeat will sting most because of their inability to exploit the extra man for the 19 minutes they held it before also being reduced. K. Shabani's equaliser proved insufficient to inspire a winning comeback, and they could not find a second goal to take the match into extra time. Dukagjini, meanwhile, demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity, with H. Berisha's second-half goal proving to be the match-winner. The durability of A. Merlaku's early strike also proved vital, giving Dukagjini a foundation to build upon despite the immediate response.
The result gives Dukagjini the Cup trophy, a significant achievement in the competition's final and a testament to their ability to perform under pressure. For Ferizaj, it represents a narrow defeat in a final where the statistical expectation was always that it would be closely fought. The Lemeister model's pre-match assessment of a slight edge for Dukagjini at 37 per cent proved accurate, with the actual outcome falling within the expected margins of error for such a tight game. The one-goal difference reflected a contest that could have gone either way, but Dukagjini's clinical finishing and ability to withstand the numerical disadvantage ultimately decided the destination of the trophy.
