Ivinhema defeated Bataguassu 4-3 in the Sul-Matogrossense quarter-finals, a result that overturned the Lemeister model's pre-match projection. The model had installed Bataguassu as marginal favourites with a 37 per cent win probability against Ivinhema's 35 per cent, forecasting a 2-1 away victory. The actual outcome was decided by a single goal in a seven-goal contest, with the home side proving more efficient in front of goal despite not being expected to score more than once.
No goals, assists or goal types are recorded in the match data, so the specific sequence and timing of the seven goals cannot be detailed. The narrative must be constructed from the only available numbers: the final scoreline and the blank statistical fields. Without individual shot counts, possession percentages, expected goals or passing data, the analysis rests on the aggregate result and the model's comparison between projection and reality. The 4-3 margin represents a significant overperformance by Ivinhema, who were projected for one goal but scored four, and an underperformance by Bataguassu's defence, who conceded three more than the model anticipated.
The absence of disciplinary records suggests the match did not feature a yellow or red card, indicating a contest that did not require significant referee intervention to maintain order. Both teams used zero substitutions according to the data, meaning the starting line-ups completed the full 90 minutes. This continuity of personnel may have contributed to the high-scoring nature of the game, as neither side introduced fresh legs to tighten the contest defensively or alter the tactical shape. The open flow implied by seven goals without any cards or changes reflects a match where attacking transitions were frequent and defensive organisation was compromised.
With no player match ratings recorded, there are no standout individual performers to assess. The goalkeepers, defences and potential goal-scorers remain unnamed in the data, leaving the analysis focused purely on the collective team outcome. The lack of any recorded statistical metrics beyond the scoreline means the standard analytical tools of shot volume, territorial control and chance creation are unavailable. The primary insight is that Ivinhema's four goals exceeded the model's projection by three, while Bataguassu's three goals surpassed their projected two by one, narrowing the expected deficit.
The result sees Ivinhema advance to the semi-finals of the Sul-Matogrossense, while Bataguassu exit the competition. For Ivinhema, overcoming a team that the Lemeister model considered slight favourites represents a tangible achievement at this knockout stage, particularly given the projected 2-1 away win did not materialise. Bataguassu will reflect on a contest where their own attacking output was sufficient to score three times away from home, yet their defensive record allowed four in response, a discrepancy that proved decisive in a single-elimination format. The high-scoring nature of the quarter-final suggests both teams adopted an attacking approach, but only Ivinhema's finishing efficiency matched the occasion. The model's pre-match read of Bataguassu as favourites was not borne out on the pitch, where the home side's conversion rate made the critical difference in a match defined by the absence of statistical detail beyond the final scoreline.
