Kastrioti Krujë defeated Lushnja 4-1 in the Regular Season - 33 of the 1st Division, a result that the Lemeister model had favoured the visitors to achieve, giving them a 39 per cent win probability before kick-off. The goals were spread across the match, with the decisive period coming either side of half-time, as Kastrioti struck three times in a 37-minute span to turn a 1-1 scoreline into a commanding lead. The model had projected a 1-0 away win, but the actual margin of victory reflected Kastrioti’s clinical finishing.
The scoring began in the fifth minute when I. Nuradin put Kastrioti ahead with a normal goal. Lushnja responded seven minutes later, with J. Peqini levelling the score in the 12th minute with a normal goal of his own. The match remained balanced until the stroke of half-time, when E. Farruku scored a normal goal in the 45th minute to restore Kastrioti’s lead. That goal proved pivotal, as the visitors carried momentum into the second half and never looked back.
Kastrioti extended their advantage six minutes after the restart, as S. Xhixho scored a normal goal in the 51st minute to make it 3-1. The final blow came in the 81st minute when I. Murati added a fourth normal goal, sealing the emphatic victory. The data shows that Lushnja, despite their equaliser, were unable to sustain any sustained pressure after the interval, as all four of Kastrioti’s goals came from open play without any assists recorded.
The match statistics are sparse, with no detailed possession, shots, or expected goals data available for deeper analysis. However, the goal timeline clearly indicates that Kastrioti were more clinical in front of goal, converting four of their efforts while Lushnja could only manage one. The lack of cards suggests a disciplined contest, and the absence of substitutes indicates that both sides largely stuck with their starting line-ups throughout the 90 minutes. Without player match ratings, the individual performances cannot be quantified numerically, but the goal-scorers clearly made the difference.
Without player match ratings or extensive statistics, the standout performers must be identified purely from the goal-scorers. I. Nuradin’s early opener set the tone and gave Kastrioti the ideal start, forcing Lushnja to chase the game from the fifth minute. E. Farruku’s goal just before half-time was crucial in shifting momentum, as it meant Lushnja went into the break trailing after having worked hard to level. S. Xhixho added a third early in the second half, effectively killing the contest, and I. Murati’s late fourth was a fitting reward for Kastrioti’s dominance. J. Peqini’s equaliser was the highlight for Lushnja, but it proved insufficient to spark a comeback, as the home side could not build on that moment.
The result moves Kastrioti Krujë to a stronger position in the 1st Division standings, while Lushnja will be left to rue their inability to build on Peqini’s equaliser. The Lemeister model’s pre-match read of a 39 per cent chance for Kastrioti proved accurate, as the visitors delivered on their status as the narrow favourites but surpassed the projected 1-0 margin. For Lushnja, the defeat in this Regular Season - 33 fixture underscores the fine margins that separate the sides in this competition, with Kastrioti’s efficiency in front of goal proving the decisive factor. The visitors scored from all four of their goals in the first 81 minutes, while Lushnja’s single goal came early and was not followed by any sustained pressure, leaving them with a disappointing result on home turf.
