Where the market is wrong on São Bernardo v Nautico Recife
São Bernardo meet Nautico Recife in the Serie B regular season - 24 at Estádio Primeiro de Maio, Sao Bernardo do Campo.
The baseline ratings are close, 1454 to 1512, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 45% against 53%. Attacking output favors São Bernardo on expected goals, 1.4 to 1.4 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 47%, over 2.5 goals around 42%. Draw no bet leans Nautico Recife at 53%; double chance reads São Bernardo or draw 64%, Nautico Recife or draw 68%.
São Bernardo arrive patchy: 1W-2D-2L from their last five (5/15 pts), 6 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ Goias, D 1-1 v Nautico Recife, D 1-1 @ Fortaleza EC, L 0-1 v Botafogo SP.
Nautico Recife are in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts), 6 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 2-1 v Athletic Club, D 1-1 @ São Bernardo, W 1-0 v Ceara, D 1-1 @ Ponte Preta.
The recent head-to-head is even, 1 apiece with 4 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: São Bernardo 1-1 Nautico Recife.
The market prices SÃO at 43% implied. Our number sits apart on Nautico Recife: a 8.0-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 71 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
