Where the market is wrong on Pakhtakor v Surkhon
Pakhtakor meet Surkhon in the Super League regular season - 18 at Pakhtakor Central Stadium, Tashkent.
Pakhtakor rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1673 to 1477. Recent form leans Pakhtakor, 75% against 45%. Attacking output favors Pakhtakor on expected goals, 1.6 to 0.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 38%, over 2.5 goals around 45%. Draw no bet leans Pakhtakor at 66%; double chance reads Pakhtakor or draw 76%, Surkhon or draw 54%.
Pakhtakor arrive in good touch: 2W-3D-0L from their last five (9/15 pts, 5 unbeaten), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 v Surkhon, W 2-1 @ Nasaf, W 3-0 v Al Hussein, D 2-2 v Buxoro.
Surkhon are patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts), 2 scored and 5 conceded. Recent results: D 0-0 @ Pakhtakor, L 1-3 v Sogdiana, L 0-1 v Navbahor, W 1-0 @ Kokand-1912.
Pakhtakor hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 2 with 4 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Pakhtakor 0-0 Surkhon.
The market prices PAK at 76% implied. Our number sits apart on Surkhon: a 15.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
