Mafra v Trofense: the model read
Mafra meet Trofense in the Liga 3 promotion group - 11 at Estadio Municipal de Mafra, Mafra. The model makes Mafra the most likely outcome at 36%, with the full read 36% MAF, 33% draw, 31% TRO.
The baseline ratings are close, 1512 to 1420, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form leans Mafra, 50% against 38%. Attacking output favors Mafra on expected goals, 1.3 to 0.8 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 34%, over 2.5 goals around 27%. Draw no bet leans Mafra at 54%; double chance reads Mafra or draw 69%, Trofense or draw 64%.
Mafra arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 9 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Alverca, L 2-3 @ FC Fredericia, W 2-0 @ Esbjerg, L 1-3 @ CF Os Belenenses.
Trofense are out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 1 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-3 @ Academica, D 1-1 v Guimaraes B, D 0-0 v Amarante, L 0-1 @ Mafra.
Mafra hold the recent head-to-head, 4 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 6 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Mafra 1-0 Trofense.
Market prices for this fixture have not settled yet. The edge reads as soon as real odds arrive.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 51 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
