Where the market is wrong on New York RB II v Toronto II
New York RB II meet Toronto II in the MLS Next Pro group stage at MSU Soccer Park, undefined.
The baseline ratings are close, 1558 to 1500, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 55% against 48%. Attacking output favors New York RB II on expected goals, 2.0 to 1.6 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 85%, over 2.5 goals around 91%. Draw no bet leans New York RB II at 59%; double chance reads New York RB II or draw 70%, Toronto II or draw 56%.
New York RB II arrive in good touch: 3W-0D-2L from their last five (9/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 10 conceded. Recent results: W 5-1 v Toronto II, W 2-1 @ Atlanta United II, W 2-1 @ Columbus Crew II, L 1-4 v New England II.
Toronto II are steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 10 scored and 11 conceded. Recent results: W 2-0 v New York City II, L 1-5 @ New York RB II, D 2-2 v Chattanooga, W 4-2 @ Chicago Fire II.
New York RB II hold the recent head-to-head, 7 wins to 2 with 1 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: New York RB II 5-1 Toronto II.
The market prices NEW at 60% implied. Our number sits apart on Toronto II: a 10.4-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 53 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
