Sepahan FC secured a narrow 1-0 victory over Kheybar Khorramabad at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium, a result that aligned closely with the Lemeister model's pre-match assessment. The model had given Sepahan a 36 per cent probability of a home win, projecting a 1-0 scoreline that proved accurate in both outcome and margin. The match was decided by a single goal in the 36th minute, scored by M. Mohebi and assisted by M. Lotfi, in a contest that was defined more by defensive organisation and disciplinary caution than by attacking fluidity.
The goal arrived midway through the first half, breaking the deadlock in what had been an evenly contested opening period. Mohebi's finish from Lotfi's pass gave Sepahan the lead, and the home side managed to protect that advantage for the remainder of the match. The absence of detailed shot data and expected goals statistics in the available record prevents a granular assessment of chance creation, but the final scoreline suggests that Sepahan were efficient with their opportunities, while Kheybar Khorramabad struggled to translate any possession or territorial advantage into genuine threats on goal.
Discipline was a notable theme throughout the 90 minutes, with four yellow cards issued across both sides. Sepahan's A. Khodadadi was the first player cautioned, receiving a yellow card in the 19th minute for a challenge that set an early tone of physical intensity. Kheybar's M. Goudarzi followed in the 38th minute, just two minutes after Sepahan's goal, suggesting the visitors may have been frustrated by falling behind. The second half brought further cautions, with Kheybar's M. Sefid booked in the 49th minute and Sepahan's Lotfi, the goal's provider, receiving a yellow card in the 83rd minute. The distribution of cards indicates that both teams were committed to their defensive duties, but equally that neither side crossed the line into indiscipline that would lead to a sending-off.
Both teams made five substitutions over the course of the match, but the lack of named substitutes and detailed player ratings means individual contributions beyond the goalscorer and those cautioned cannot be analysed. What is clear from the disciplinary record is that the match was competitive but controlled, with neither side dominating the physical exchanges to the extent that it disrupted their tactical shape.
The Lemeister model's pre-match read gave Sepahan a 36 per cent chance of victory and Kheybar a 30 per cent chance, with the draw at 34 per cent. The actual result validated the model's slight preference for the home side, though the narrow margin of victory suggests that Kheybar were competitive throughout. For Sepahan, the three points strengthen their position in the Persian Gulf Pro League table, adding to their home record at Naghsh-e-Jahan Stadium. The victory maintains their momentum in the regular season campaign, particularly valuable in a league where away points are often hard to come by.
Kheybar Khorramabad will view this as a missed opportunity. A single goal separated the sides, and the discipline shown by both teams points to a game in which tactical organisation was prioritised over risk-taking. While the visitors' defence held firm for most of the match, they could not prevent the decisive combination between Mohebi and Lotfi. Without a goal of their own, even a point proved elusive. The result extends Sepahan's positive run and leaves Kheybar reflecting on a performance that, while organised, lacked the cutting edge required to take something from the trip to Isfahan.
