Where the market is wrong on KA Akureyri v KR Reykjavik
KA Akureyri meet KR Reykjavik in the Úrvalsdeild regular season - 20.
KR Reykjavik rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1400. Recent form leans KR Reykjavik, 70% against 30%. Attacking output favors KR Reykjavik on expected goals, 3.5 to 1.5 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 87%, over 2.5 goals around 95%. Draw no bet leans KR Reykjavik at 63%; double chance reads KA Akureyri or draw 53%, KR Reykjavik or draw 72%.
KA Akureyri arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 7 scored and 13 conceded. Recent results: L 3-5 v KR Reykjavik, D 4-4 @ Valur Reykjavik, L 0-1 v FH hafnarfjordur, L 0-3 @ Keflavik.
KR Reykjavik are in good touch: 3W-2D-0L from their last five (11/15 pts), 19 scored and 9 conceded. Recent results: W 5-3 @ KA Akureyri, D 3-3 v Breidablik, W 5-2 @ Fram Reykjavik, D 1-1 @ FH hafnarfjordur.
KR Reykjavik hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: KA Akureyri 3-5 KR Reykjavik.
The market prices KA at 23% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 54 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
