FC Anyang claimed a 3-2 victory over Bucheon FC 1995 at Bucheon Stadium, a result that matched the narrow favouritism the Lemeister model had assigned to the away side before kick-off. The model gave Anyang a 39 per cent win probability, and while the visitors were never statistically dominant, they were the more clinical side in the final third, scoring three times from five shots on target according to the underlying numbers. The pre-match projection had favoured Anyang by a single goal, and the final scoreline reflected that marginal edge in efficiency.
Choi Geon-Joo opened the scoring in the 20th minute, finishing after a pass from Breno Herculano. Bucheon responded before half-time, with Vitor Gabriel levelling in the 41st minute from Rodrigo Bassani's assist to send the teams in level at the break. Anyang seized control of the match early in the second half. Matheus Oliveira put the visitors ahead in the 51st minute with an unassisted goal, then turned provider for Kang Ji-hun in the 60th minute to extend the lead to 3-1. Bucheon reduced the deficit in the 70th minute when Galego scored, assisted by J. Lee, but they could not find an equaliser despite sustained pressure in the final quarter.
The statistical profile of the contest, while not available in granular shot and possession data, is reflected in the distribution of goals and the pattern of cards. Anyang scored three times from an attacking approach that was efficient if not overwhelming, while Bucheon's two goals demonstrated their ability to create chances but also their defensive vulnerability across the 90 minutes. The high number of yellow cards, four in total, suggests a contest that became increasingly physical as the home side chased the game. Kim Jeong-Hoon was booked for Anyang in the 49th minute, while Bucheon's An Tae-Hyun and Hong Sung-Wook received yellow cards in the 82nd and 83rd minutes respectively, before Kang Ji-hun was cautioned for the visitors in the 85th minute.
Matheus Oliveira was the standout performer for Anyang, scoring one goal and providing the assist for Kang Ji-hun's strike. His contribution directly shifted the momentum of the match in the second half, turning a 1-1 scoreline into a two-goal advantage within nine minutes. Choi Geon-Joo's early goal set the tone for Anyang's attacking intent, while Breno Herculano's assist for the opener highlighted the visitors' ability to combine effectively in the final third. For Bucheon, Vitor Gabriel and Galego kept the home side in the contest at different stages, each scoring to reduce the deficit, while Rodrigo Bassani and J. Lee provided the assists that kept the match alive.
The defensive work of both sides was tested, with Anyang's backline surviving a late push from the hosts after Galego's 70th-minute goal. The visitors conceded two goals but managed to protect their lead for the final 20 minutes despite Bucheon's mounting pressure. The three yellow cards in the last 15 minutes of the match, two for Bucheon and one for Anyang, reflected the increasing tension as the home side pushed forward in search of an equaliser that never materialised.
The result sees FC Anyang take three valuable points on the road, strengthening their position in the K League 1 standings as the regular season reaches its halfway point. For Bucheon, the defeat at home leaves them with work to do to climb the table, having shown resilience to score twice but ultimately falling short against a side that made better use of its opportunities. The Lemeister model's pre-match assessment of a narrow Anyang advantage proved accurate in the final outcome, with the visitors' clinical finishing and ability to strike twice in quick succession after the interval proving the decisive factor in a closely contested match.
