Where the market is wrong on El Porvenir v Deportivo Español
El Porvenir meet Deportivo Español in the Primera C regular season - 29.
Deportivo Español rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1627 to 1477. Recent form leans Deportivo Español, 70% against 48%. Attacking output favors El Porvenir on expected goals, 0.7 to 0.7 per match.
El Porvenir arrive steady: 2W-1D-2L from their last five (7/15 pts), 5 scored and 6 conceded. Recent results: L 0-2 v Deportivo Español, W 1-0 @ Juventud Unida, L 0-2 @ Central Cordoba, W 4-2 v Claypole.
Deportivo Español are surging: 4W-1D-0L from their last five (13/15 pts, 2 straight wins), 6 scored and 1 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Central Ballester, W 2-0 @ El Porvenir, D 1-1 @ Mercedes, W 1-0 v Fénix.
Deportivo Español hold the recent head-to-head, 5 wins to 2 with 3 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: El Porvenir 0-2 Deportivo Español.
The market prices EL at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on the draw: a 6.6-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 69 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
