Where the market is wrong on SJK v HJK Helsinki
SJK meet HJK Helsinki in the Veikkausliiga regular season - 18 at OmaSp Stadion, Seinajoki. The model makes HJK Helsinki the most likely outcome at 48%, with the full read 26% SJK, 26% draw, 48% HJK.
HJK Helsinki rate clearly stronger on the baseline, 1650 to 1454. Recent form leans HJK Helsinki, 70% against 43%. Attacking output favors HJK Helsinki on expected goals, 2.7 to 1.9 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 72%, over 2.5 goals around 83%. Draw no bet leans HJK Helsinki at 65%; double chance reads SJK or draw 52%, HJK Helsinki or draw 74%.
SJK arrive patchy: 1W-1D-3L from their last five (4/15 pts, 3 straight defeats), 6 scored and 8 conceded. Recent results: L 1-2 @ FF Jaro, L 0-2 v KuPS, L 0-1 @ VPS, W 3-1 v Turku PS.
HJK Helsinki are in good touch: 4W-0D-1L from their last five (12/15 pts, 3 straight wins), 10 scored and 4 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Turku PS, W 5-0 v Coleraine FC, W 2-1 v VPS, L 0-2 @ Lahti.
The market prices SJK at 31% implied. Our number sits apart on HJK Helsinki: a 3.7-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 64 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
