Where the market is wrong on AC Oulu v Ilves
AC Oulu meet Ilves in the Veikkausliiga regular season - 18 at Raatin stadion, Oulu. The model makes Ilves the most likely outcome at 40%, with the full read 30% AC , 29% draw, 40% ILV.
The baseline ratings are close, 1535 to 1581, so form and chance quality carry more weight here. Recent form separates little, 53% against 60%. Attacking output favors Ilves on expected goals, 1.9 to 1.3 per match.
Across the derived markets, from the same model: both teams to score around 61%, over 2.5 goals around 61%. Draw no bet leans Ilves at 57%; double chance reads AC Oulu or draw 60%, Ilves or draw 70%.
AC Oulu arrive out of sorts: 0W-2D-3L from their last five (2/15 pts), 3 scored and 12 conceded. Recent results: D 1-1 @ Mariehamn, L 0-2 v Gnistan, L 0-3 @ Turku PS, D 1-1 v Lahti.
Ilves are in good touch: 3W-1D-1L from their last five (10/15 pts), 7 scored and 3 conceded. Recent results: W 1-0 v Lahti, L 0-1 @ Stjarnan, W 3-1 @ Turku PS, W 3-1 v FC Differdange 03.
Ilves hold the recent head-to-head, 8 wins to 0 with 2 drawn across the last 10 meetings. Most recently they met in 2026: Ilves 1-0 AC Oulu.
The market prices AC at 39% implied. Our number sits apart on Ilves: a 5.5-point gap between model and market. That gap is the story, not the winner.
MeisterIQ rates the signal 66 of 100. Every input above is on the card; check the work before you trust the number.
Written from the MeisterIQ model output
